Polymarket — hantavirus markets timeline
Historical YES probability snapshots for the 5 active Polymarket markets on hantavirus, with annotations for the major events that moved them.
Key events
May 4, 2026 — Polymarket opens
May 5, 2026 — 38% peak
May 7, 2026 — WHO statement
هل ستُعلَن جائحة فيروس هانتا في 2026؟
9%
$2.2M traded
May 4, 2026 min 4% · max 38% May 7, 2026
Show history points (4)
| Date | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | 9% | $2.2M |
| May 6, 2026 | 18% | $1.8M |
| May 5, 2026 | 38% | $1.3M |
| May 4, 2026 | 4% | $230k |
May 5, 2026 min 15% · max 100% May 16, 2026
Show history points (4)
| Date | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 100% | $1.3M |
| May 7, 2026 | 23% | $187k |
| May 6, 2026 | 15% | $140k |
| May 5, 2026 | 40% | $80k |
هل ستُعلَن جائحة جديدة في 2026؟
5%
$95k traded
May 5, 2026 min 5% · max 12% May 7, 2026
Show history points (2)
| Date | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | 5% | $95k |
| May 5, 2026 | 12% | $60k |
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
100%
$34k traded
هل سيُعتمَد لقاح لفيروس هانتا في 2026؟
2%
$34k traded
May 5, 2026 min 2% · max 4% May 7, 2026
Show history points (3)
| Date | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | 2% | $34k |
| May 6, 2026 | 3% | $22k |
| May 5, 2026 | 4% | $12k |
Will WHO declare a hantavirus outbreak by June 30, 2026?
7%
$29k traded
هل سيُؤكَّد تسرّب فيروس هانتا من مختبر بحلول 30 يونيو 2026؟
4%
$12k traded
May 5, 2026 min 4% · max 6% May 7, 2026
Show history points (2)
| Date | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | 4% | $12k |
| May 5, 2026 | 6% | $4k |
How to read these
Each line shows the YES probability implied by Polymarket trading over time, sampled hourly by our worker. The market is binary: traders buy YES or NO shares, and the price (between $0 and $1) represents the crowd's estimated probability. A spike means a sudden swing in expectations; a long flat line means the crowd has converged. Volume is total dollars traded, not market cap.
⚠ Prediction-market probabilities reflect crowd sentiment of self-selected traders. Not investment advice.